The Long-term Trend in Prices May be Less Positive
The Exceptional Macro MRI, which is an indicator of longer-term resilience, ceased providing resilience as of last Friday (January 29). Historically, the cessation of Exceptional Macro MRI has meant that the long-term trend of stock price increases is likely to be less steep. The Exceptional Macro ceased for the DJIA but also for several other major indexes.
If you would like a reminder on the terms used – Macro MRI, Exceptional Macro MRI, Micro MRI, and their expected cycles – please see this webpage: https://focused15investing.com/language
Background
The most important purpose of identifying the periods of exceptional resilience is to identify the beginning of a major upward trend in prices. The Exceptional Macro Market Resilience Index does this effectively. Therefore, the algorithms focus on the beginning of the period, not the end.
The research done for the Focused 15 Investing approach also showed that the end of a period of Exceptional Macro resilience is often followed by a dip in prices lasting a few weeks. Unfortunately, I have not found an effective way to respond to the end of the Exceptional Macro without sacrificing return at other times - while still adhering to the Friday trading schedule.
Beginning in late 2020, I have given the option to subscribers to increase Box #2 Cash (on the Shares-to-Trade worksheet) as soon as the period of Exceptional Macro resilience ends. Responding in this way can avoid some of the major declines identified in figure 1 below.
Figure 1 below shows the performance of the DJIA algorithms since 1990. For clarity, I have not included the DJIA or the upper risk mix for this model portfolio. The periods with the Exceptional Macro MRI are shown as red vertical lines. The key observations are:
- The periods of Exceptional Macro resilience are not common – most of the history shown does not have this extra source of resilience.
- Returns are indeed higher during the periods of Exceptional Macro resilience. This can be most easily seen in periods A, C, E, F, and G.
- Soon after the end of a period of Exceptional Macro resilience (after the red lines end) there is often a dip in returns. This can be most easily seen after periods A, B, D, F, I and J. Period J started and ended just before the March 2020 decline.
Figure 1. Sample DJIA model portfolio (D5 signal), showing Exceptional Macro
This chart is on a log scale so we can see the declines in the early years. But a log scale also tends to understate the pain associated with declines. The declines after periods I (January 2018) and J (the March 2020) were painful.
Please note that increasing Box #2 Cash is optional. The return and risk of the model portfolios is strong without using this option. Also, while we might have avoided the declines of 2020 by raising cash, my reason for providing this option is because of the dips after periods D, F and I. These are most likely to be the types of losses we can avoid going forward. We may not experience a global event such as the COVID-19 pandemic for many years.
Similar Shifts Seen in Other Indexes
The Exceptional Macro ceased for the S&P500 and the Russell 1000 in addition to the DJIA. All three of are indexes for large US company stocks, so I expect them to move in similar ways in general. But their Exceptional Macros are not always synchronized to the extent that they were this last week.
The cessation of Exceptional Macro occurred for the ETFs “PBD” and “ARKK,” which we use in the add-in sleeves. While these ETFs don’t have long histories, their behavior to date suggests that their MRI are useful in anticipating resilience and performance. I believe the breadths of indexes making the shift decreases the likelihood that the shift is only because of events last week, namely GameStop trading.
In addition, I have been watching for several weeks the buildup of changes within the algorithms leading to this cessation of the Exceptional Macro. Although it seems likely that factors other than Gamestop led to the buildup, it is possible that Gamestop temporarily pushed the markets over a tipping point. I will review the results of this week’s returns to determine if the end of the Exceptional Macro was a one-week event.
A factor that could be important is the status of the Micro MRI, which measures the shortest cycle of resilience. I discuss below how this has influence my decision to suggest a 50% level for Box #2 Cash. We are likely to maintain high levels of Box #2 Cash until the Exceptional Macro re-emerges and/or we begin an upleg in the Micro MRI, which, as discussed in the section below, is still several weeks away.
Increasing Box #2 Cash to 50% Because of Near-term Vulnerability Related to Micro MRI
The reason I selected 50% as the amount for Box #2 Cash instead of a lower amount is that we are still early in the downleg of a Micro MRI cycle. Markets are likely to be more vulnerable to declines over the next several weeks regardless of the condition of the Exceptional Macro.
The Micro MRI has been making a slow peak over the last several weeks and are moving to the downleg of its cycle. For the DJIA, the Micro is at the 66th percentile of levels. All else equal, stock prices are likely to be vulnerable for several more weeks. If the Micro MRI were at lower levels in their cycles and closer to the beginning of their uplegs (e.g., at the 40th percentile or lower, for example), I would have suggested a smaller amount for Box #2 Cash.
In addition, many stock markets around the world have Micro MRIs in similar conditions. Since many of the stock indexes are beginning the downleg of their Micro MRI cycles at high levels, we can expect markets around the world to experience weakness. Also, markets being synchronized is sometimes a warning sign for major global stresses. The following stock market indexes are in the same general condition as the DJIA – their Micro MRI recently formed a peak and is still at a high level in its downleg (at the 60th percentile or higher):
S&P500
NASDAQ
MSCI World Index
Russell 2000 Small Company Index
UK Stocks
Europe Stocks
Japan Stocks
Emerging Market Stocks
Shanghai Composite Stocks
Of course, we have a global pandemic, which is a source of great stress. Its global nature alone may account for the synchronizing economies and stock markets. However, from the perspective of our investment approach, when investors see many markets decline at the same time, the risk of panic selling increases, which tends to deepen the declines. Thus, my selection of 50% for Box #2 Cash.
Consistent with global stress and weak US stock prices, the MRI suggest that the USD will strengthen over the next several weeks. We may see heightened inflation concerns as well.
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